沖縄県辺野古沖小型船転覆事故要因を探る

2026年3月16日に起きた、辺野古沖小型船転覆事故の要因を科学的に解明する試みを行った。これまでマスメディアなどでは、「波浪注意報発令中の無理な出航」「サンゴ礁へ過度の接近」などが転覆事故の要因として報道されている。科学的に調べた結果、これらの要因はいずれも事故の主要因には当たらず、16秒を超える長大な周期をもつうねりの浅水効果と屈折効果が巨大な波高を発生させた要因とされ、通常の経験値を超える周期を持つ波の来襲が事故要因とする結果を得た。

We conducted an attempt to scientifically clarify the factors behind the small boat capsizing accident off Henoko that occurred on March 16, 2026. Until now, mass media and other sources have reported such factors as an unreasonable departure while a wave advisory was in effect and excessive approach to the coral reef. However, scientific investigation showed that neither of these factors constituted the primary cause of the accident. Instead, the main factor was identified as the generation of extremely high waves caused by the shoaling and refraction effects of swell with an unusually long period exceeding 16 seconds. The study concluded that the arrival of waves with a period beyond the range of ordinary experience was the cause of the accident.